人民币成为国际储备货币构架图

搜狐财经: 人民币国际化又迈出了一步: 中日两国将于6月起实行人民币与日元直接兑换交易。这将直接加强两国企业往来，意味着汇率风险和交易费用被"一并消除"。报道称，中日2011年双边贸易总额为27.5万亿日元(约合人民币2.19万亿元)，但绝大部分通过美元结算，而中日货币"直接连线"后，仅交易费用一项，每年就能节约30亿美元。

Economics – New Links for Students from the IMF

Posted on May 20, 2012 by iMFdirect 

 

The IMF’s well written Finance & Development magazine has recently published two helpful online compilations of articles that may be useful to students and those interested in economic issues. They are rich collections of material that are totally free!!

1. Back to Basics — explaining some fundamental concepts in Economics and Finance

2. People in Economics — a collection of profiles of leading economists and policymakers, including 10 Nobel Prize winners.

In addition,

• get regular news and analysis on global and regional economic issues from IMF Survey online and its new Google + channel

• listen to regular audio podcasts with leading experts on development issues around the world–or download from iTunes.

• and get free a neat new ipad app for IMF news and data–it lets you chart and view global economic indicators and forecasts

希腊看来去日无多了

华尔街日报中文版刊刚刚登了两篇有关希腊的文章，一篇是从政治层面，另一篇是从经济层面，都对希腊继续留在欧元区持悲观态度，看来希腊留在欧元区的日子真的去日无多了。下面节选几个要点：

第一篇  容克：欧元区多数财长赞成希腊退出欧元区

容克表示，希腊6月17日举行的下次选举将是该国能否留在欧元区的最后机会，若此次选举无法产生愿意遵守救助计划条件的政府，希腊将退出欧元区。

欧盟(EU)贸易专员Karel De Gucht...表示，欧盟委员会及欧洲央行正在就希腊退出欧元区的紧急方案进行研究。

德国财长沃尔夫冈•朔伊布勒已考虑希腊在进行选举的同时就该国是否留在欧元区举行全民公投的可能性。

第二篇 经济学家对希腊退出欧元区影响的预测汇总

摩根大通(JP MORGAN)：在希腊政客未能组建联合政府后，该国退出欧元区的可能性已由20%升至目前的50%。

花旗集团(CITIGROUP)：希腊退出欧元区的情境有许多种，几乎每种都可能对欧元区造成较长时间的负面影响。...总而言之，欧元前景难以乐观，除非决策者作出令人意外的决断。

野村(NOMURA)：希腊经常项目余额将因缺乏资本流入和不可避免的资本出逃而大幅波动。该机构还再次强调，希腊银行业可能需要暂停营业以防止存款流失。

汇丰(HSBC)：在连带影响方面，需要考虑希腊退出欧元区将给欧洲其他市场带来多大影响，以及欧洲央行采取相关应对举措的速度和力度。

美银美林(BANK OF AMERICA-MERRILL LYNCH)：希腊退出欧元区的风险正在加大，但确保希腊留在欧元区的动力也在增加。

苏格兰皇家银行(RBS)：人们已经在为希腊退出欧元区做准备，但是如果由此带来的连带影响过大，一份较为明确的债务货币化融资方案可能摆上桌面。

南非驳斥关于中非关系的５个论调

南非标准银行网站近期刊发题为《对当前中非关系一些主要批评的反驳》一文，对国际上批评和指责中非关系的主要论调予以反驳，并对中非关系有关问题进行了澄清。

• 论调一：中非关系近年来之所以蓬勃发展，是因为中国向非洲提供了一种比“华盛顿共识”更容易接受的经济意识形态，或者叫“北京共识”。
• 论调二：在中非贸易中，非洲只向中国出口矿产资源，中国则向非洲出口大量工业制成品，中非贸易对非洲经济增长乘数效应有限，中国对非出口使非洲制造业“空心化”。 
• 论调三：中国作为大国在与非洲打交道时占据不公平优势。
• 论调四：中国本着不干涉内政原则同非洲国家开展经贸合作，提供援助，事实上帮助非洲“流氓”国家化解了政治经济改革压力，助长了它们侵犯人权、破坏生态环境和压榨劳工的行为。 
• 论调五：中国正把其他伙伴挤出非洲，非洲是“零和”机会。

详细全文请阅读 南非网络刊文驳斥国际对中非关系指责.

Martin Luther und die Eurozone

Die Diskussion über Griechenland und andere PIGGS-Staaten wird immer lauter und ein Austritt von der Eurozone ist nun nicht ausgeschlossen. Eine relevane Frage ist: Hat man bei Maastricht Fehler gemacht? Ja, das ist die Antwort von einen Artikel von the Globalist.

"Read my lips: No unreformed Catholic countries," he would have chanted.

Economists: Chinese Currency Significantly Undervalued

Here is a new article about the valuation of Chinese Renminbi from Wall Street Journal. In these short paper the different opinions between the economists are outlined. Some economists are based on the reducing trade balance form this year, and the others, probably based on a calculation with Purchasing Power Parity.

Economists: Chinese Currency Significantly Undervalued

By Phil Izzo

Last week, a Chinese central bank official said the yuan’s exchange rate with the dollar “isn’t clearly undervalued.” Economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey beg to differ.

Twenty-eight of 41 economists who responded to the question said that yuan was undervalued, and 23 of them said it was undervalued by more than 5%. Nine economists said the level was about balanced, and just four said the yuan was overvalued.

Stephen Stanley of Pierpont Securities was among those who said the Chinese currency was at about the right level. “The trade balance is getting less lopsided,” he said.

Meanwhile, Ram Bhagavatula of Combinatorics Capital thinks that while the yuan is undervalued, it’s not a large number. “Other countries in the region are proving more attractive,” he said.

But most of the respondents disagreed. Allen Sinai of Decision Economics estimates the currency is undervalued by up to 30%. And Julia Coronado of BNP Paribas say that if the exchange rate is balanced, China’s currency policy makes no sense. “If it weren’t [undervalued by more than 5%] then what would be the harm in letting it float?,” she said.